Browsing by Author "Carlson, Craig"

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    Extracting Transmission And Recovery Parameters For An Adaptive Global System Dynamics Model Of The Covid-19 Pandemic
    (2021-07-09) Carlson, Craig; Rubin, David; Heikkilä, Vilma; Postema, Michiel
    Accurately modelling the susceptibility, infection, and recovery of populations with regards to the COVID-19 pandemic is highly relevant for the implementation of counter-measures by governing bodies. In the past year, several thousands of articles on COVID-19 modelling were published. The spread of the pandemic has frequently been modelled using the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model owing to the low level of complexity. In recognition of its simplicity, we developed an SIR model to represent the spread of disease on a global scale, irrespective of mutation and countermeasures. The SIR parameters were reverse-engineered from aggregated global data. This model is the first to retrospectively deduce the initial incidence. The average transmission and recovery parameters were computed to be 0.33 week⁻¹ and 0.23 week⁻¹ , respectively. These values lie well within the range of reported values on COVID-19 determined from geographically different regions. The model was simulated in the Ventana® simulation environment Vensim® for a 65-weeks duration and an adjusted initial infection incidence, which was presumed three times the reported initial infection incidence. The simulated data visually aligns with the real incidence data. We attribute the discrepancy between the presumed initial value and the reported value to lack of testing facilities on the starting date of 1 March 2020. Our parameter extraction suggests a novel methodology to quantify undertesting retrospectively in epidemics.
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    Finetuning A Single-Blade Sonic Paper-Cutter As An Energy-Saving Sharpening Instrument
    (2022-02-11) Shava, Kudzai; Hlakudi, Carolline; Postema, Michiel; Carlson, Craig
    Constant usage and exposure to harsh environments results in a blade to become blunt. Two matching circuits were developed to improve the energy efficiency of an ultrasonic single-blade paper-cutting tool, whilst enhancing the sharpness of the blade. The unmatched ultrasonic knife had a measured magnitude of −0.3 dB and a resonance frequency of 251 kHz. The incorporation of a matching circuit significantly improved the magnitude indicating greater power transfer and consequently energy efficiency. The sharpening effect of ultrasound was qualitatively and quantitatively investigated, where both yielded a less tortuous cut under sonication in comparison to the unsonicated case. The addition of a matching circuit further improved the cutting efficiency. At an operating voltage of 10V peak , the cut made by the ultrasonic knife with a matching circuit was less tortuous than even an industrially cut edge, with a linearity of 61–63 % compared to 59 %, respectively.