Regional Dynamics in Nigerian Politics: Voting in the 2023 Presidential Elections
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Date
2024-01-19
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Abstract
Amid the geo-political and religious divide, we examine the voting pattern and voter behaviour in Nigeria's 2023 Presidential election. We challenged established electoral theories, demonstrating that ethno-religious affiliations predominantly drive voter mobilisation by considering other factors like socioeconomic conditions and elite communication. We employed three multivariate quantitative techniques in our analysis. We considered the four leading candidates from the incumbent part, the main opposition, the third force and the spoiler candidate as we focused on the voting pattern in the six geo-political zones. Our result highlights how regional and religious identities shape voting patterns, overshadowing socioeconomic grievances. We find variations in voting patterns between the Muslim-majority North and the Christian-dominated South. Regions with higher voter turnout and higher poverty rates favour the incumbent party candidate and the main opposition candidate. Regions with higher unemployment rates were less inclined to support the incumbent party's candidate. Our findings on voter mobilisation in response to economic policies have direct implications not only for democracy but for public policy, particularly in areas related to economic stability. Overall, our analysis provides a multidimensional perspective on the electoral dynamics and informs targeted political strategies and understanding of voter behaviour.
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Supplemental Materials: https://osf.io/d6ums/
Keywords
Electoral Strategy, Elite Messaging, Geopolitical Dynamics, Polarisation, Socioeconomic impact